Energy market modelling

ACIL Allen has developed leading economic modelling applications for the Australian gas and electricity markets, the Australian national economy, transport modes, and water supply.

ACIL Allen has a long track record in modelling and analysing Australia’s energy markets (wholesale, ancillary services, and retail), extending back to the late 1990s. We have developed market-leading analytical and modelling capacity across gas, electricity and renewable energy markets in Australia and we have used this capacity across a wide range of asset valuation, policy evaluation, strategic advice, and market projection assignments over the last twenty plus years.

Added to this energy market capacity, is our capability to undertake detailed analysis of the electricity network, providing projections of Marginal Loss Factors (MLFs) and impacts of network constraints on market outcomes.

The above capacity is coupled with our recognised experts in gas, electricity and renewable energy markets that have deep knowledge and experience across the energy sector. Our team brings decades of commercial, technical and government experience in Australian energy markets. Importantly we offer this deep knowledge, analytical capacity and experience across all parts of the energy sector rather only than having expertise in parts of the sector.

Our PowerMark model takes into account iterative bidding and portfolio optimisation in simulating electricity market behaviour in Eastern Australia (NEM), Western Australia (SWIS), Singapore (NEMS), and the Philippines (WESM).

Our GasMark model generates long-term projections of gas supply, demand, price and pipeline flow, including interactions with domestic electricity and international LNG markets.

We also have models which project the uptake of rooftop solar panels, behind the meter batteries, and electric vehicles – all critical in understanding the evolving nature of the energy market.

Our suite of models has been used to assist clients in:

  • asset valuations and due diligence, including risk assessment
  • the timing of new developments
  • gas and electricity procurement and contracting
  • forecasting and scenario planning
  • informing the development of energy and climate change policy
  • setting retail prices and feed-in tariffs.